A new report from University College London (UCL) indicates that green ammonia could surpass Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) in affordability for the maritime sector by 2035. This economic shift is contingent on the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) net-zero emissions framework and the expansion of major renewable energy initiatives. The study specifically highlights the potential of the Grand Inga hydropower project to create a symbiotic relationship between large-scale renewable energy generation and the cost-efficient production of green ammonia.
For freight forwarders and operations managers, this forecast suggests a future where sustainable shipping fuels are not only environmentally preferable but also economically competitive. Lower fuel costs for green ammonia could translate into more stable or even reduced bunker surcharges, impacting overall freight rates. This development may influence carrier decisions regarding fleet modernization and fuel choices, potentially leading to increased availability of green shipping options and a shift in preferred trade lanes or vessel types as infrastructure for alternative fuels develops. Forwarders should monitor these trends to advise shippers on future compliance costs and green logistics strategies.
