The Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) has published findings suggesting that the global supply of biomethane might not be sufficient to cover the shipping industry's anticipated fuel requirements by 2030. The primary obstacles are identified as limitations in infrastructure, certification processes, and regulatory frameworks, rather than the availability of feedstock for biomethane production.
Under a base-case scenario, the MMMCZCS projects that global biomethane supply could reach approximately 21 billion cubic meters (bcm) by the end of the decade. This volume is estimated to theoretically satisfy around 70% of the shipping sector's potential biomethane fuel needs.
For freight forwarders and logistics professionals, this analysis highlights potential future challenges in securing sufficient quantities of alternative, low-carbon fuels. A shortfall in biomethane availability could lead to increased price volatility for this specific fuel type, impact carrier commitments to decarbonization targets, and potentially influence routing decisions if certain trade lanes or ports offer better access to sustainable fuels. Forwarders should monitor developments in green fuel infrastructure and regulatory support to anticipate potential cost implications and capacity constraints related to decarbonized shipping options.
