Cross-border e-commerce airfreight volumes have demonstrated a recovery in 2026, following an earlier decline in mid-2025. This downturn was primarily linked to the elimination of the US$800 de minimis exemption, which initially impacted the flow of goods. UPS reported a substantial 34.8% year-on-year decrease in average daily volume during May and June 2025. However, the market has since adjusted, with UPS now indicating growth on the China-US trade lane in 2026. Similarly, FedEx's international export package volumes concluded its fiscal year with a 1% increase.
For freight forwarders and operations managers, this trend suggests a stabilization and renewed demand in the e-commerce air cargo sector, particularly for transpacific routes. While the initial regulatory change created volatility and capacity adjustments, the current recovery indicates that shippers and carriers have adapted. Forwarders should monitor continued volume growth and potential rate fluctuations as the market matures post-de minimis adjustment. This rebound could lead to increased air cargo capacity utilization and more stable pricing on key e-commerce lanes.
