Wood Mackenzie indicates that the primary driver of current diesel price volatility stems from constraints in Russian diesel supply. These constraints are a direct consequence of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian export infrastructure. This impact is considered far more significant than any potential influence from a recent agreement between the United States and Russia regarding diesel trade.
Earlier this week, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) granted a license allowing the sale, delivery, offloading, and importation of Russian-origin diesel. This authorization is valid until April 7, 2027. The deal was reportedly forged during a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Trump asserting that it would lead to lower diesel prices for American consumers.
For freight forwarders and logistics operations, sustained high or volatile diesel prices directly translate to increased operational costs, particularly for road and rail transport, and indirectly for sea and air cargo through bunker and fuel surcharges. While the US-Russia deal might offer some localized relief in the US market, the broader global supply disruptions from Russia could maintain upward pressure on prices, affecting budgeting and profitability for carriers and shippers worldwide. Forwarders should monitor regional supply dynamics and bunker fuel indices closely, as these will likely reflect the ongoing impact of these supply constraints.
