The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a warning that the aviation industry's ambitious net-zero emissions targets are in jeopardy due to insufficient supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). While global SAF production is forecast to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, this volume will only constitute a mere 0.8% of the total jet fuel consumed worldwide.
IATA emphasizes that governments must provide greater support for SAF production, including promoting co-processing methods, encouraging the development of lower-carbon aviation fuels, establishing effective book-and-claim systems, and investing in necessary energy infrastructure. The organization argues that these foundational steps are crucial before stricter SAF mandates are imposed on airlines.
For freight forwarders and logistics operations managers, this situation implies continued reliance on conventional jet fuel for the foreseeable future, potentially limiting options for shippers seeking to reduce their supply chain emissions via air cargo. The slow ramp-up of SAF production means that any green premiums for SAF-powered flights will likely remain high and availability scarce. Forwarders should monitor regulatory developments closely, as government incentives or mandates could eventually influence air freight rates and capacity allocation for greener services. Planning for long-term decarbonization strategies in air cargo will need to account for the significant challenges in SAF scaling.
IATA's stance suggests a push for policy changes that prioritize supply-side growth over immediate, stringent demand-side mandates, aiming to create a more robust SAF market.
