Global air cargo rates experienced a substantial 41% year-on-year increase in May 2026, as reported by Xeneta. This significant rise is primarily attributed to ongoing capacity limitations stemming from disruptions in the Middle East, which continue to exert upward pressure on pricing. While some recovery in Gulf-region capacity has been observed, a new and powerful market driver has emerged: robust demand from the semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) industries.
This heightened demand from the tech sector is notably contributing to elevated Transpacific rates and is expected to sustain high pricing levels for air cargo services. For freight forwarders and operations managers, this trend indicates continued high costs for airfreight, particularly on key East-West lanes. Capacity remains tight, especially for high-value and time-sensitive cargo related to semiconductors and AI components. Shippers should anticipate elevated rates and potential space constraints, necessitating proactive booking and potentially exploring alternative routing or modes for less urgent shipments. The shift in demand drivers suggests that even if Middle East capacity fully normalizes, the underlying strength from AI and semiconductors could keep air cargo markets firm.
