Global container shipping is currently facing a substantial capacity deficit, estimated at 1.8 million TEU, primarily due to persistent delays and low schedule reliability. Analysis by Sea-Intelligence indicates that even when accounting for pre-pandemic baseline figures, about 1 million TEU of capacity is effectively unavailable. Schedule reliability has consistently hovered between 50% and 65%, a notable decline from the 70-80% levels observed from 2011 to 2019.
The industry's approach to resilience, largely centered on acquiring more assets such as new vessels and containers, is being questioned. This strategy appears to be misdirected, as it fails to address the underlying operational inefficiencies that contribute to poor schedule performance. The focus on increasing physical capacity without improving the reliability of existing services does not effectively enhance the system's ability to withstand disruptions.
For freight forwarders and operations managers, this sustained low schedule reliability translates into increased planning complexity and higher operational costs. Unpredictable vessel arrivals and departures necessitate larger buffer stocks, leading to higher warehousing expenses and potential demurrage or detention charges. It also complicates inland logistics, as truck and rail connections are frequently missed, causing further delays and additional costs. Forwarders must build more flexibility into their supply chains and communicate proactively with shippers about potential disruptions and extended lead times. The ongoing capacity crunch, even with new vessel deliveries, suggests that rate volatility and tight space could persist on key trade lanes, particularly if demand remains strong.
To genuinely improve resilience, the container shipping sector may need to shift its focus towards enhancing operational efficiency, digitalizing processes, and fostering better collaboration across the supply chain. This could involve optimizing port calls, improving data sharing, and investing in technologies that predict and mitigate disruptions more effectively, rather than solely relying on expanding fleet size.