Ship operators indicate that the rate of scrapping for older tankers, particularly those involved in the 'shadow fleet' and subject to sanctions, might be a crucial factor in determining whether the current large newbuild order book will depress tanker freight rates. The crude tanker order book is estimated by BIMCO to be nearly 25% of the existing global fleet, a level not seen since 2008.
This situation means that if a significant number of these older, less compliant vessels are removed from circulation, it could absorb some of the new capacity entering the market. The evolving demand landscape, influenced by geopolitical events such as the Hormuz shipping crisis, also plays a role in this dynamic.
For freight forwarders and operations managers, this scenario presents a complex outlook for tanker rates. A higher rate of scrapping could lead to more stable or even rising rates by preventing an oversupply of vessels, while slower scrapping combined with new deliveries could drive rates down. Monitoring the geopolitical situation and regulatory enforcement against shadow fleets will be key to anticipating future rate movements and capacity availability in the tanker segment.