Thai Rice Exports Anticipate H2 2026 Recovery Amidst Easing Middle East Tensions

Thailand's rice export volumes are forecast to experience a recovery during the second half of 2026, provided that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region diminish. This projection is based on an assessment by Mohit Agarwal, the country head for Olam Agri in Vietnam. The stability of the Middle East is a critical factor influencing trade flows and demand for agricultural products from Southeast Asia.

Simultaneously, the pricing for Thai 5% broken white rice is anticipated to fluctuate within a limited range. This price stability is largely attributed to the ample domestic stock levels within Thailand, which are expected to mitigate any upward pressure on prices. This suggests a balanced supply-demand dynamic internally.

For freight forwarders and logistics professionals, this outlook implies potential for increased cargo volumes from Thailand in late 2026, particularly if the geopolitical landscape improves. While prices are not expected to surge, the anticipated recovery in export volumes could lead to a modest increase in demand for container shipping capacity on relevant trade lanes. Forwarders should monitor Middle East developments closely, as any sustained conflict could delay this recovery, impacting shipping schedules and commodity flows. The stable price environment might also reduce speculative buying, leading to more predictable shipment planning.