Middle Eastern refinery output is currently operating at approximately 7.3 million barrels per day (mbd), a substantial decrease from the 9.9 mbd recorded in February 2026, prior to recent regional conflicts. This decline is primarily due to physical damage sustained by refinery infrastructure and ongoing challenges in evacuating refined products through the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking ahead, a gradual recovery in refinery operations is projected to commence in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, industry analysts do not anticipate a full return to pre-conflict throughput levels before a significant period. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the need for extensive repairs and logistical adjustments will likely prolong the recovery phase.
For freight forwarders and supply chain managers, this situation implies potential disruptions in the availability and pricing of refined petroleum products originating from the Middle East. Shippers may face increased lead times and higher costs for fuel and other derivatives. The constrained product evacuation through the Strait of Hormuz could also lead to rerouting considerations or longer transit times for vessels, impacting overall schedule reliability and potentially increasing war risk premiums for voyages through the region. Forwarders should monitor the geopolitical situation and refinery recovery progress closely to advise clients on potential impacts to their supply chains and adjust logistics strategies accordingly.
